In Depth: 7 tech predictions that were way off the mark
There's always a temptation to try to predict the course of future events, and the world of computing is no exception. With everything seemingly becoming bigger, better and faster year on year, there's an insatiable appetite for predictions, and some individuals seem dutybound to meet that demand.
Today these people like to call themselves futurologists, and while this might give the practice an air of scientific respectability, in many cases it has to be said with hindsight that using a crystal ball would have been just as accurate.
Intrigued? Then join us as we examine seven prophecies that fell short of the mark.
"It would appear that we have reached the limits of what it's possible to achieve with computer technology, although one should be careful with such statements, as they tend to sound pretty silly in five years."
John von Neumann, 1949
Though the second part of this statement is certainly right, the first bit is unbelievable. Von Neumann was an eminent scientist and mathematician, and developed the computer architecture we still use today. Not a person you'd expect to make such a rash statement.
The fact that he couldn't think of any possible new applications for computers suggests a serious lack of imagination considering that, in 1949, computers hadn't been used for much yet.
In that year, you could count the number of operational computers in the world on your fingers. They had all been developed in universities and were deployed only for scientific purposes. It would be another two years before J Lyons and Company launched LEO (Lyons Electronic Office computer), the first computer designed specifically for business applications. So that's one more potential application, for starters.
Von Neumann's contemporaries weren't as blinkered, though. As he was uttering these immortal words, Claude Shannon – now regarded as the father of information theory – was working on some truly groundbreaking applications.
In 1950, he took one of the first steps in the development of artificial intelligence by demonstrating an electromechanical mouse that could find its way around a maze. The same year, he published a paper detailing how computers could be used to play chess. So much for von Neumann's prophecy!
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
Thomas J Watson, President of IBM, 1943
Computer historians dispute the validity of this quotation, but even if Watson himself didn't utter those words, there's plenty of evidence that computer experts expressed such a sentiment as recently as the early '50s. And the idea wasn't as daft as it sounds.
COLOSSAL MIS-JUDGEMENT: The first electric computer had yet to be built when Thomas J Watson predicted a market for five of them
Back in 1943, the world's first fully electronic computer of any sort – the code-breaking Colossus at Bletchley Park – was just in the process of being commissioned. It would be another five years before the first ever computer as we now understand the word (the Manchester Baby) was built, a further eight years before the first commercial computer (the Ferranti Mark I) went on sale, and 10 years before Watson's own company, IBM, launched its very first computer (the 701).
Of course, we all know that this prophecy turned out to be absolute rubbish, but the vast scale of the under-estimation might still be an eye-opener. Forget PCs (over a billion of them) and think of microcontrollers. They outnumber the world's population many times over, and each one is vastly more powerful than anything Thomas Watson might have envisaged.
"Computers in the future will weigh no more than 1.5 tons."
Popular Mechanics, 1949
Before you dismiss this prediction as coming from an unlikely source, we should tell you that Popular Mechanics has been one of America's leading science and technology magazines for over 100 years. And as you'd expect from such an August publication, the prediction was, for the most part, spot-on – the vast majority of today's computers do indeed weigh in at less than 1.5 tons. Not all of them, though – not by a long way.
Jaguar, the world's fastest supercomputer, is housed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee and weighs in at almost 200 tons. That doesn't even include the massive air conditioning units that are needed to get rid of the heat that's generated by almost a quarter of a million processor cores, which consume 10 megawatts of power between them.
FAT-CAT: Even today, some computers weigh more than 1.5 tons – this one considerably more
To be fair, though, at 1.75 petaflops, Jaguar is about two thousand billion times faster than 1949's latest and greatest.
"There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home." Ken Olsen, co-founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977
He really ought to have known better. After all, the company Ken Olsen founded was responsible for the first of two important milestones in the history of home computing.
Prior to the early '60s, a computer was one thing and one thing only – a mainframe. It would be priced in hundreds of thousands of pounds, if not millions, occupy a whole room and require a full-time staff to operate and maintain it.
In 1964 DEC launched the PDP- 8, which is generally considered the first commercially successful minicomputer. It was the size of a refrigerator, cost $18,000 and over 50,000 were sold – more than any other computer before it. For the first time, a computer could be owned by a single department, not a huge organisation, and it could be operated by people who weren't scientists.
Computers were starting to pass from a select few to the many. Even more surprising, though, is the fact that Olsen made this statement after the second of those two milestones had passed. That was in 1975, when the MIPS Altair 8800 became the first personal computer to sell more than a handful of units.
"640kB should be enough for anyone."
Bill Gates, 1981
He later denied it, but this was allegedly Bill Gates' take on the maximum amount of memory a computer would need. Even if he didn't actually say it, we can be pretty sure he believed it, as it seems fairly realistic in context.
Previous personal computers were based on 8-bit processors, which meant they couldn't address more than 64kB of memory. But even this would have been the stuff of dreams for most home computer users of the day.
Perhaps the best known British home computer that year was the Sinclair ZX81, which had just 1kB of memory.
To put this in context, let's bring it up to date. If you were offered a PC today with 2.56TB of memory, wouldn't you think it was enough for anyone – at least for a few more years?
"I have travelled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year."
Editor in charge of business books, Prentice Hall, 1957
The computer revolution might already have been almost 10 years old by this point, but computers were still pretty thin on the ground. With an estimated 100 of them in use in 1953 and 250 in 1955, this new technology wasn't exactly taking the world by storm.
What's more, the phrase 'data processing' refers to business applications, which were lagging well behind technical computing. Lyons, of teashop fame, launched LEO, the first ever business computer, in 1951. But by 1957, only one was in operation – and that was used by Lyons itself for valuation jobs and payroll processing. Even Big Blue was slow to make an impact on business computing.
Its first offering, the IBM 702 Electronic Data Processing Machine, was only in production from 1953 to 1954. Its replacement, the 705, broke new ground by being the first commercial computer to use magnetic core memory, but the number sold isn't on record. What we do know, though, is that back in the '50s, IBM was overshadowed by a company now long forgotten: Remington Rand, later known as Sperry Rand.
Its earliest computer, the UNIVAC, first shipped in 1952 and was designed from the outset for business and administrative use. It did well, but success was relative back in the '50s. By the time the UNIVAC was replaced by the UNIVAC II in 1958, a grand total of 46 devices had been sold.
Given that such machines cost between $1.25 and $1.5million (around $10million today), this gloomy prophecy wasn't too surprising. We bet he thought differently in another five years, though.
"Transmission of documents via telephone wires is possible in principle, but the apparatus required is so expensive that it will never become a practical proposition."
Dennis Gabor, 1962
Dennis Gabor wasn't your average scientist – he was a Nobel Prize winner. That award was for his invention of holography, but he also applied his considerable talents to the theory of data communication. So he really ought to have known what he was talking about, but it turned out he didn't – at least not on this particular subject.
It wasn't long before his error was exposed. Later that same year, AT&T launched the Bell 103, which was the first commercially successful modem. It was now possible to transmit data at 300 bits per second across an ordinary telephone line. In fairness to Gabor, this technology was still too slow and too expensive to be used for anything other than mainframe communication.
It wasn't until the early '80s that the proliferation of bulletin boards heralded the era of low-cost data communication that was available to Joe Public. Just a year after making this spectacularly inaccurate prediction, Gabor had a change of heart on the subject of forecasting the future.
In his 1963 book, Inventing the Future, he wisely stated that "the future cannot be predicted, but futures can be invented". This is surely a fitting place to conclude our investigation of computing's most unreliable and inaccurate prophecies.
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Review: Packard Bell EasyNote LJ75
Despite its acquisition by Acer in 2008, it is only in recent months that Packard Bell has begun to release a stream of highquality new mobile products. The latest release is the EasyNote LJ75-JO-080UK, a stunningly cutting-edge, high-powered multimedia centre.
Powered by Intel Core i5 technology, performance is excellent. Frequent and demanding multi-tasking is easily possible, with all our test software opening quickly and running smoothly and reliably.
This level of power is continued on the graphics side. Using a dedicated ATi graphics card, performance is great with enough power on hand for most graphics heavy tasks. Whether playing the latest games or editing high-definition (HD) video, there is ample power on offer here for all multimedia requirements.
The large 17.3-inch widescreen panel provides a stunning canvas for this power, with impressive brightness, colour and contrast combining with deep black levels for eye-catching images.
An HDMI port lets you connect to a larger HDTV when required for a full multimedia experience.
Unfortunately, for such a capable multimedia machine, Blu-ray support is notably absent. DVDs and CDs can be accessed, however, and the 500GB hard drive is ideal for holding tens of thousands of photos, videos and songs.
All this power would be useless without a good user interface, so thankfully the EasyNote delivers well. While the keyboard doesn't span the full width of the chassis, the tapered keys are large and accessible, making typing a pleasure at all times.
Resilient chassis
While the black and silver chassis design isn't the most stylish we've seen, it creates a sleek look for the home or office. The chassis also feels pleasingly resilient throughout and is sure to take the knocks of regular family use.
Inevitably for such a large and high powered machine, mobility takes a backseat. At 3.2kg, you won't want to carry this machine far. There is a surprising 199 minutes of battery of life on offer, however, for working around the home.
Equally useful is the high-speed network connectivity on offer. Gigabit Ethernet and 802.11n Wi-Fi provide the fastest possible wireless and fixed connections, rounding out the specifi cation of this powerful consumer laptop.
Using cutting-edge technology for stunning performance, the EasyNote LJ75-JO-080UK is one of the best machines you can buy at this price. Add its vibrant screen, great usability and feature-packed specification and you've got a fantastic laptop for the whole family.
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Guide: How to make your own iPad micro SIM
The iPad is almost in the UK, but the micro-SIM is not.
Despite the 3G version of the iPad being sold unlocked, it requires a whole new type of SIM card, or does it? That's right, we've been trimming away the mystery of the new micro-SIM.
At first glance, the electronic contact area is no different to that of a conventional SIM, you know, the type that's small enough to fit into a tiny phone never mind the hulking iPad.
As it turns out traditional SIMs measure 15 x 25mm and have that angled corner. The new micro-SIM is officially 12 x 15mm. That's effectively the size of just the normal SIM contact area.
Apple was just wanting to be clever or it just wanted everyone to be forced to buy new SIMs, either way it's a touch annoying, but with our mighty scissors we can cut them down to size and so can you. SIMples.
How to do it:
Future Publishing Limited provides the information for this project in good faith and makes no representations as to its completeness or accuracy. Individuals carrying out the instructions in this project do so at their own risk.
1. Here's a traditional SIM and its measurements, the only working area is the metal contacts.
2. This is the same SIM with the micro-SIM specifications overlaid. You can use this to trim yours down to size.
3. Here we are cutting our SIM down to size...
4. ...and now it's ready to activate in our shiny new iPad.
However, AT&T's version of the micro-SIM appears to be around 13.5 x 16.5mm - enough to give the original contact area 1.1m clearance along the bottom and left edge and 1.7mm along the top and right area - so it may be worth holding off on the scissors until we get our hands on an iPad and check the correct dimensions.
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Review: MSI X400-225UK
MSI is best known as a component manufacturer, but also produces a range of laptops, from compact netbooks to high-powered gaming machines. The X400-225UK is a sleek CULV model that combines a stunning screen and great mobility from its small chassis.
Weighing just 1.7kg, this machine is perfect for life on the move. Its slim design has a depth of just 25mm when closed and is easy to slip into even the smallest hand luggage.
The 219-minute battery life is decidedly average, however, but provides basic mobile usability.
As with the Lenovo ThinkPad R500, sturdy black plastics have been used to increase resilience. The whole chassis feels very well put together for such a slim machine, although the glossy plastic lid is prone to attracting scuffs and scratches.
Large keyboard
Despite its compact design, a suitably large keyboard is in place. It is set quite far back on the chassis – forcing you to lean forward slightly when working – and bounces slightly when typing, but we found it to be responsive and comfortable.
Usability is restricted slightly by the lack of an optical drive and the inclusion of only two USB ports. This is to be expected for such a slim machine, however, and is necessary to provide such compact dimensions at an equally low price.
An Intel Ultra-Low Voltage processor has been used in order to keep power consumption as low as possible. Running at just 5.5 watts, it allows the chip to generate low temperatures inside the slim chassis, keeping the palmrest and base of the machine cool at all times.
The downside is the limited performance it provides. It is also featured in the Mesh – and only suits basic multitasking, so bear this in mind if you require power for more demanding use.
The same can be said for graphics performance, but this is again to be expected, as high-powered graphics cards need greater space and ventilation to run than is possible here. Nevertheless, the MSI is able to run videos smoothly enough and even allows basic photo editing use.
This is helped by the stunning 14-inch screen. The backlit LED panel is impressively bright with vibrant colours and clear contrast. The glossy Super-TFT coating is inevitably reflective, but not distractingly so, and HDMI and VGA ports are in place for connecting larger screens.
While the limited battery life of the X400-225UK means it is not a flawless CULV machine, its stunning screen, strong usability and portable dimensions ably compensate. For a compact machine to use at home or on the daily commute, you could do a lot worse.
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Review: Mesh Edge13 Aero RS
Mesh is a UK-based manufacturer, known for offering the latest technology at competitive prices. Its Edge13 Aero RS is a CULV machine that packs a stunning screen and ample storage, but is flawed by its limited connectivity and warranty cover.
Basic performance is provided by an Intel Core 2 Solo processor. This single-core chip runs at just 5.5 watts to minimise power consumption, but is only really suitable for the most basic use, such as word processing and browsing the internet.
The laptops low-powered processor does not provide the impressive mobility we had hoped for. Running for 232 minutes, you can only enjoy basic mobility but is bettered by a lot of other rivals.
That said, this compact 1.7kg machine is extremely portable and easy to carry on a regular basis. The chassis is well made and feels suitably sturdy throughout. However the highly polished, glossy plastics are a magnet for attracting scuffs and fingerprints.
Where this machine stands out is its bright and vibrant 13.3-inch screen. Images are rendered sharply, with accurate levels of colour and contrast. VGA and HDMI ports are also in place for connecting to larger screens when back at home.
The Mesh Edge13 Aero RS ample storage is provided by a 500GB hard drive, ideal for holding large collections of music, videos and photos, such capacious storage is useful, as there is no integrated optical drive for accessing data from, or writing data to, CD or DVD.
It should be noted, however, that the hard drive of our test unit was very slow to respond when saving data and regularly produced an audible clicking sound when the disk was being accessed. This may not be a fault for all models, however, but be sure to bear it in mind before buying.
Good usability
Usability is far more pleasing. While the large keyboard lacks style, it is firmly fixed and all keys respond smoothly and accurately. Even when typing at speed, we found it produced no errors and we were able to work confidently at all times.
Unfortunately, the poor connectivity and warranty again flaw this machine. This machine has 802.11g Wi-Fi and has limited RTB warranty which means you must pay all delivery costs in the event of any fault.
While the Edge13 Aero RS is a usable machine with a nice screen, its potentially flawed hard drive, poor connectivity and limited warranty make it hard to recommend.
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Apple iPad goes on sale in US
The Apple iPad has gone on sale in the US, with thousands flocking to get their hands on one of this 2010's most eagerly anticipated gadgets.
People who pre-ordered the tablet computer were able to pick up their gadgets at Apple stores across the country, scenes that will be repeated in the UK in less than a month's time.
With positive early reviews, which nevertheless stopped short of calling the device the revolution that it hopes to be, the buzz around Apple's latest product is not likely to die down any time soon.
iBook
An iBook store means that the device is not only an internet slate, or a repository for the kind of apps that have propelled the iPhone to the top of the phone charts for so long, but also an e-book reader.
The word being best describing the buzz around the iPad is 'potential', with games developers excited about the potential for a new platform, authors keen to see if the Apple device can take e-books into the mainstream and publishers of newspapers and magazine poised to see if this is the next generation for media.
The likes of the Wall Street Journal's Walt Mossberg and confirmed Apple fanboy Stephen Fry have already paid testament to the iPad – and now the rest of the world will watch and wait as US consumers get their turn to try it out.
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